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里根总统助理:为什么朝鲜是美国的麻烦?

更新时间:2017-05-26 17:47:47  |  来源: 《美国保守主义》

Why Is North Korea the United States’ Problem?

为什么朝鲜是美国的麻烦?

 
Just 30 or so miles from the Demilitarized Zone, which separates South and North Korea, sits Seoul, the political, industrial, and population heart of the Republic of Korea. It remains vulnerable to North Korean attack, but is as chaotic as usual. Lately it has been convulsed by a domestic political crisis, leading to the election of a new left-wing president, Moon Jae-in, and foreign-policy challenges, including China’s economic assault in retaliation for deployment of the THAAD missile defense system.

首尔距朝韩非军事区(注:中国人习惯上仍称“三八线”)仅30多英里,是韩国的政治、工业和人口中心。它不仅易遭受朝鲜的袭击,而且仍像往常一样的混乱。最近,首尔身陷国内政治危机,导致了新左翼候选人文在寅的胜选和外交政策方面的挑战,包括中国对韩国部署萨德导弹防御系统进行的经济报复。

 

Even more threatening, however, may be the Trump administration’s confrontational stance toward the North. So far most South Koreans assume President Donald Trump is bluffing with his threats of war. Even so, tensions between the South and U.S. are likely to rise, since President Moon advocates a much more conciliatory policy toward Pyongyang. Moreover, President Trump admits that he doesn’t know much about foreign policy—as Chinese President Xi Jinping learned when the latter patiently explained to his American counterpart Beijing’s limited influence over North Korea. Anything could happen.

然而,更具威胁性的可能是特朗普政府对朝鲜采取的对抗立场。目前为止,大多数韩国人认为美国总统特朗普正在 “虚张声势”地威胁要发动战争。即使如此,随着新任总统文在寅主张对朝鲜采取更加安抚性的政策,美韩之间的紧张局势可能会加剧。此外,特朗普总统承认,他不太熟悉外交政策——因为中国国家主席习近平后来耐心地向美国同行解释了北京对朝鲜的有限影响。什么事情都可能发生。

Despite his ignorance, President Trump apparently is certain that Pyongyang’s weapons programs are Washington’s problem. Why? No one outside the borders of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea wants Kim Jong-un to have nukes at his command. Washington officials are particularly insistent that the North should not possess nuclear weapons atop ICBMs capable of reaching the U.S. That prospect has pushed the Trump administration into frenetic if not necessarily productive activity.

尽管特朗普总统在外交政策方面有些无知,但他显然确定朝鲜核计划是华盛顿所面临的问题。为什么?因为朝鲜以外的任何人都不希望金正恩拥有对核武器的控制权。华盛顿的官员明确表示,朝鲜不应该拥有能够打到美国本土的洲际弹道导弹载核武器。如果这并不是必要的生产性活动,那光有这种愿景就已经让特朗普政府抓狂。

Yet it’s worth considering why the Kim regime is working so hard to refine its nuclear technologies and expand its missile capabilities. Such weapons are expensive and result in widespread international opprobrium. But they offer important benefits as well.

然而,值得考虑的是,为什么金正恩当局正努力改进核技术并扩大其导弹能力?这类武器虽然价格昂贵,引起广泛的国际谴责,但是它们也提供了重要的利益。

Nukes would be useful in an offensive campaign against South Korea, though not so long as the latter is defended by America. Nuclear weapons offer prestige; otherwise no one else on earth would much care about the status of the poor, isolated state. Nukes also provide an opportunity for extortion. Although the message, “Send money or else,” hasn’t been working well of late.

纵然韩国不仅仅受美国保护,核武器仍将会在对韩作战中发挥作用。核武器提供了特定的影响力,否则地球上不会有太多人关心穷人和被孤立国家的状况。核武器还提供了敲诈勒索的机会,尽管“送钱,或送别的”这条信息迟迟没有发挥好的效果。

Finally, nuclear-tipped missiles provide a powerful deterrent. Which North Korea has good reason to believe it needs?

最后,核导弹提供了强大的威慑力。到底是哪一条让朝鲜充分相信它需要核武器?

A quick glance at a map illustrates that the North does not threaten America. In fact, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has never threatened America. The two nations do not share a land border, so Pyongyang could not easily send its vast legions to conquer the U.S., as in the last iteration of the movie Red Dawn. The DPRK does not have a Blue Water navy, so no armada could invest and invade Guam, let alone Hawaii. Since North Korea possesses no long-range bombers, Kim’s air force could not reduce U.S. cities to rubble. And even now the North does not have ICBMs capable of reaching, let alone accurately targeting, America.

快速浏览一下地图就知道,朝鲜并不会威胁到美国。事实上,朝鲜民主主义人民共和国从未威胁到美国。两个国家的陆地没有接壤,所以平壤不可能像在电影《红色黎明》最后描写的那样,轻易地派出庞大的军团征服美国。朝鲜没有蓝水海军(Blue Water Navy),所以没有军舰可以覆盖和入侵关岛,更别说夏威夷了。由于朝鲜没有远程轰炸机,金正恩的空军无法使美国变为废墟。即便是现在,朝鲜的洲际弹道导弹也不能打到美国,更遑论准确地瞄准美国了。

In the normal course of events, the Kim dynasty wouldn’t give the U.S. much thought. North Koreans certainly wouldn’t be feverishly working on weapons designed to threaten the global superpower, which has the capability to incinerate Pyongyang many times over.

在正常情况下,金正恩当局不会让美国有很多想法。朝鲜当然不会狂热到研制那些用来威胁全球超级大国的武器,而这个超级大国可以把平壤摧毁很多次。

However, Washington has been threatening the North for 67 years.

不过,美国却已经威胁朝鲜67年了。

Of course, U.S. officials believe they had good reason to do so. The inter-Korean struggle initially mattered to America because it was an important front in the Cold War. Without U.S. intervention the Republic of Korea would have been swallowed by Kim Il-sung’s army, disappearing into a modern form of the Dark Ages. Even after formal hostilities ended, the U.S. presence was initially necessary to protect the ROK, a war-ravaged, impoverished, and unstable dictatorship.

当然,美国官员们认为他们有充分的理由去这样做。朝韩内部之间的战争最初对美国至关重要,因为它在冷战中意义非常。没有美国的干预,大韩民国将被金日成的军队吞没,消失在现代形式的黑暗时代。即使在正式的敌对行动结束之后,美国的存在最初对于保护韩国来说仍是必要的,因为韩国当时是一个饱受战祸、贫穷而不稳定的独裁政权。

Washington placed infantry and armored units on the North’s border, capable of invading North Korea, as they did during the Korean War. Washington-based aircraft throughout the region capable of bombing North Korea, as they did during the Korean War. And Washington deployed naval vessels capable of conducting operations against North Korea, as they did during the Korean War. Indeed, the U.S. threatened to go to war against the DPRK whenever Washington deemed it necessary or appropriate.

就像他们在朝鲜战争期间所做的一样,美国把步兵装甲部队驻扎在北方边界,以便能入侵朝鲜。就像那时一样,整个地区的美军飞机都具备轰炸朝鲜的实力。就像那时一样,美国部署了对朝鲜发动进攻的海军舰艇。事实上,美国会在他认为必要或适当的时候把对朝鲜的威胁转化为战争。

In the post-Cold War world, the threat to Pyongyang only increased. North Korea essentially lost its allies. After the Soviet breakup, Moscow initiated a friendly relationship with South Korea. The People’s Republic of China followed suit. Neither would likely go to war with America on the North’s behalf. The DPRK almost certainly would be alone in any crisis.

在后冷战时期,朝鲜受到的威胁只增不减。朝鲜基本上失去了盟友。苏联解体后,俄罗斯和韩国建立起了友好关系。中华人民共和国也是如此。他们都不可能代表朝鲜与美国开战。在任何的危机中,朝鲜几乎肯定是孤立的。

Moreover, Washington took on the role of global dominatrix, effectively dividing the world into two camps: countries which bomb other countries and countries which get bombed. And the latter group is mostly, though not entirely, made up of countries which get bombed by the U.S.

此外,美国也扮演了全球主宰者的角色。他实际上把世界划分成两大阵营:轰炸其他国家的一方和被炸的一方,而后者则大部分是由遭到美国所轰炸的国家组成。

In recent decades Washington has imposed regime change on a succession of nations. Grenada, Panama, Haiti, Somalia (to the extent there was a regime to change), Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. The U.S. became a de facto co-belligerent with Saudi Arabia attempting to do the same in Yemen. American officials used more limited force, mostly aid to insurgents, with less success to do the same in Nicaragua and Syria. The U.S. went to war to prevent ethnic Serbs from breaking up Bosnia and then intervened to break up the state of Serbia. Even now Washington routinely threatens war against Iran.

近几十年来,美国已经对一系列国家施加了政权更迭,包括了格林纳达、巴拿马、海地,索马里(在某种程度上有更迭的政权)、阿富汗、伊拉克和利比亚。美国变成了沙特阿拉伯一个事实上的同盟,试图将同样的手法用到也门共和国。美国官员使用的力量较为有限,主要是援助叛乱分子,在尼加拉瓜和叙利亚很少获得成功。美国是为了防止塞尔维亚族分裂波斯尼亚而进行干预,打破了塞尔维亚的状况。即使现在,华盛顿也常常威胁对伊朗发动战争。

Then there is North Korea, enemy of an American treaty ally, international outcast, and member of the infamous Axis of Evil, with leaders loathed in Washington. Could there be a better candidate for regime change? It is a good example of the dictum that even paranoids have enemies.

那么,朝鲜是美国盟友的敌人,国际上的异类(outcast),以及臭名昭著的“邪恶轴心”的成员,其领导人被美国所厌恶。还会有更好的政权更迭候选人吗?这正应了那句格言:即使是妄想症患者也有敌人。

All of which makes North Korean missile and nuclear programs a logical response to a dangerous security environment. And explains Pyongyang’s current focus on America, punctuated by typically hyperbolic outbursts. (In contrast, the DPRK does not threaten to turn Moscow, Berlin, Bern, Abuja, Johannesburg, New Delhi, Brasilia, and most other national capitals into lakes of fire.) The Kims from DPRK founder Kim Il-sung down through grandson Kim Jong-un have given no indication of being suicidal. They almost certainly would prefer to stay out of America’s way. But if they can’t, then they obviously see creating and flaunting a nuclear deterrent as the next best policy.

所有这一切使朝鲜的导弹和核计划成为危及安全环境的正当回应。这也解释了平壤当局目前对美国十分关注,这种关注时常因美国夸张的愤怒所中断(相比之下,朝鲜并不威胁将莫斯科,柏林,伯尔尼,阿布贾,约翰内斯堡,新德里,巴西利亚以及大多数其他正陷入危机的国家首都)。朝鲜的金家政权自创始人金日成以降,到其孙子金正恩都没有迹象显示会自取灭亡。他们肯定会选择走远离美国的道路。但如果不能这样做,那么他们显然会把核威慑作为下一项最好的政策。

Put simply, Trump administration officials are running around Washington warning that missiles, if not the sky, may end up falling because the U.S. has chosen to intervene in the inter-Korean struggle. That involvement is a matter of choice. America actually does not have to police every region of the globe forever. Certainly Washington should take into account the cost in deciding on future policy.

简单地说,特朗普政府官员正围绕华盛顿到处警告说,如果导弹没有“空中爆炸”,极有可能会因为美国选择介入朝韩斗争而降落。那种参与是一个选择的问题。实际上,美国不一定要永远在世界各地维持秩序。华盛顿当然应该考虑未来决策的成本。

And that price in Korea could soon include facing a nuclear power with a leadership that is to some degree impulsive, paranoid, and reckless. (Not so different, ironically, than America’s present administration.) While the DPRK would not likely attack the U.S. without provocation, what would count as the latter?

美国在朝鲜的代价很快就会表现为面对一位拥有核力量的领袖,而这位领导者在某种程度上是冲动,偏执和鲁莽的(讽刺的是,这与美国现在的政府没有太大的区别)。尽管朝鲜不会在没有挑衅的情况下袭击美国,但怎样才算是挑衅呢?

Any attempt to destroy the North’s WMDs or decapitate the regime would probably be reckless. Today military action would be a wild gamble because the North possesses the conventional capability to rain death and destruction down upon Seoul, South Korea’s capital. If the Kim regime could do the same on American cities, preventative war would disappear as an option for U.S. administrations.

任何摧毁朝鲜大规模杀伤性武器或采取斩首行动的企图,都可能是鲁莽的。如今,军事行动将是一场疯狂的赌博,因为朝鲜具备掀起腥风血雨并摧毁韩国首都首尔的一般能力。如果金政权在美国城市也可以这样做,那么先发制人的战争(preventative war)将在美国政府的选择中不复存在。

Pyongyang might also view a much-enhanced attempt to strangle the North economically as an existential threat. And what of conventional military involvement by the U.S. in a conflict on the Korean peninsula, however it began? Certainly there could be no drive to the Yalu, even after defeating another North Korean invasion.

朝鲜可能也会看到一种从经济上扼杀朝鲜的趋势日益增强,这是一种既存的威胁。美国在朝鲜半岛冲突中的常规军事介入是什么呢?即使在打败另一次朝鲜入侵之后,也肯定没有到鸭绿江的动力。

Indeed, the U.S. would face many of the same limits that it did when confronting the Soviet Union. Any military action would become more dangerous, and thus less likely, if American cities could be annihilated.

实际上,美国会面临许多像过去对抗苏联的时候类似的限制。任何军事行动将变得更加危险,因此美国城市被击溃的可能性很小。

Which suggests that the U.S. should consider a dual-track response to the North’s weapons development. First, continue discouraging North Korean acquisition of nukes and missiles.

这表明美国应该考虑一种对朝鲜核武器发展的双重回应。首先,继续劝阻朝鲜获得核武器和导弹。

But even greater reliance on Beijing remains a long-shot. Pyongyang might choose to go it alone, irrespective of the cost, and survive. Moreover, the Trump administration has yet to assuage China’s understandable concerns over destabilizing the North as well as contributing to Beijing’s own containment by ultimately creating a united Korea allied with America.

但更依赖北京仍然希望渺茫。无论代价如何,朝鲜可能会选择独自生存下去。此外,特朗普政府还没有缓解中国对美国破坏朝鲜稳定的担忧,也没有通过最终创造一个与美国结盟的朝韩共同体,来促成对中国的牵制。

Second, Washington should disengage militarily from the peninsula. South Korea has dramatically outpaced the North on every measure of national power other than military, and the latter remains a matter of choice. The Republic of Korea sees no reason to spend more if Washington is willing to do so. That’s a good deal for Seoul, but not America. At the very least the U.S. should devolve responsibility for the ROK’s conventional defense onto the ROK. Doing so would eliminate an important scenario for confrontation with a nuclear-armed North and opportunity for tensions with different governments in the South.

第二,美国应该从半岛军事上撤离。除了军事之外,韩国在国家力量的每一个方面都大大超过了朝鲜。而且,军事仍然是一个选择。如果美国愿意这样做,大韩民国看来没有理由在这方面花更多的钱。这对首尔来说是个利好,但对美国不是。至少美国应该把对韩国常规防御的责任下放给韩国。这样做将消除与拥有核武器的朝鲜对抗的严重局面,并有机会消除同韩国各届政府的紧张局势。

Moreover, Washington should consider the heretofore unthinkable: a South Korean nuclear deterrent to the North. Certainly that’s not a desirable outcome, but dealing with the DPRK yields only second-best solutions. For America, nothing at stake in the Korean peninsula is worth nuclear war. The U.S. should not consider sacrificing Los Angeles or Seattle for Seoul—or Tokyo, for that matter. If such a trade becomes a real (though still, hopefully, unlikely) possibility, Washington policymakers have an obligation to the American people to rethink current policy.

此外,华盛顿应该考虑以前不可想象的另一方面:韩国对朝鲜的核威慑。当然这不是我们期望的结果,但是处理朝鲜问题只会产生第二个好的解决办法。对美国而言,朝鲜半岛没有任何值得发动核战争的危急时刻。面对这个问题,美国不应该考虑为了首尔或东京去牺牲洛杉矶或西雅图。如果这种交易变成一种(虽然还是希望不太可能)可能,华盛顿政策制定者有义务为美国人重新考虑现行的政策。

A nuclear North Korea is bad news. One capable of striking America is even more dangerous. But by intervening in the Korean peninsula Washington helped create and sustain the DPRK nuclear threat. Instead of threatening war, the Trump administration should take a military step back. The price of America’s reflexive defense of populous and prosperous allies is getting much higher.

朝鲜拥有核武器是个坏消息。一个有能力打击美国的国家更加危险。但是通过介入朝鲜半岛,美国帮助创造和维持了朝鲜的核威胁。特朗普政府不应该进行战争威胁,而应该退后一步。美国对人口众多而繁荣盟国的反身防御(reflexive defense)的代价越来越高。

本文发表在《美国保守主义》杂志,2017年5月11日。原标题:Why Is North Korea the United States’ Problem?

作者,道格•班多(Doug Bandow),卡托研究所高级研究员,曾是里根总统的特别助理。尚道社会研究所 曹朝龙译

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